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Tornado videos from today’s storms

Videos are emerging of today’s tornadoes.


Fort Leonard Wood, MO:

With 8 tornado reports and 41 total storm reports, this is already the biggest severe weather outbreak/event to occur in recorded history on New Years’ Eve. Let’s also not forget about the snow! Some areas in the Northern Plains are forecast to get over a foot of snow from this system.

Early morning tornadoes strike the mid-country, cause fatalities

There are now three people confirmed dead in Cincinnati, Arkansas (near the Oklahoma border) as tornadic storms move through the mid-country and race off to the north and east.

There is an article on NWAOnline with more information.

This and other storms are hitting on New Years’ Eve morning when everybody is sleeping in and has the day off. I doubt many people got the warnings in time when the storms first started in western Oklahoma and eastern Arkansas/Missouri.

Here is a SRM of the storms from earlier this morning, the more northern and stronger couplet is the one with the reported fatalities:

I would not be surprised to see an upgrade in the severe weather outlook from the SPC in their 1630z update today. This system is definitely more potent than what was originally anticipated. There is currently a tornado watch in effect for most of AR and MO, which extends into far western IL. Severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings are ongoing in AR and MO.

What to Watch Fore(cast) – Dec 27 – Jan 3


Record lake-effect? – Some areas like Syracuse, NY prep for another round of lake-effect snow to close out December. The lake-effect could break the all-time snowiest month on record in some areas in the wake of an amazing and amazingly-bizarre winter storm.

A brief re-cap – A few facts from the incredible coastal storm that rocked parts of the Southeast and East Coast over the past few days.

Mid-country storm looming – After several big cold blasts this month, a switch in the weather pattern will bring a potent storm system to the mid-country as temperatures rise to above normal levels in the East.

Cold in the West – Cold air will funnel in behind the mid-country storm, bringing below normal temperatures to most of the West through the second half of the week and into next week.


The lake-effect during this blustery month of December is already one for the record books, with Syracuse, NY racking up over 72 inches of snow in December, making it the snowiest December on record in that area. Syracuse is just 6-7″ short of breaking the snowiest month on record of any month! With another 3-6″ or more possible before the end of December, that record looks fairly obtainable. This all comes in the wake of a monster coastal system that rocked the East Coast with snowfalls of over a foot, including measurements of up to 32 inches in New Jersey! The D.C. are somehow managed to only report a trace to half an inch as parts of the southeast and Appalachians received up to 6-12+ inches of snow, including a little over an inch in Atlanta, GA.

A potent low pressure system will meander through the West around mid-week before rapidly developing over the Great Plains late in the work week. This storm will cause massive snowfall on the order of over a foot in parts of the Central and Northern Plains, with heavy rain and possible thunderstorm activity out ahead of the storm’s cold front from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Atlantic. This storm’s true potential will be somewhat limited by less-than-favorable upper levels, which are positioned in such a way that the storm can not “bomb out” and cause utter chaos. However, there is still plenty of room for development, so I won’t rule it out completely just yet. This system will push to the north and east and the cold front will move off the East Coast late this weekend, with another disturbance developing in the Southeast as we head into the start of the work week next week.

Behind this mid-country system, a series of weaker disturbances will reinforce the upper-level trough over the West, which will create temperatures that are 5-10 degrees or more below normal from mid-week through early next week. This is in steep contrast to the first two-thirds of the month, in which the West saw temperatures in the range of 5-10 degrees ABOVE normal. While somewhat persistent for about a week’s time, the long-range forecast indicates that this will not be a lasting trend.

Mid-Atlantic – The Week Ahead (Dec 26 – Jan 2)

The hit-or-miss coastal storm appears to be mostly a miss for those west of I-95 as the storm system makes its way up the East Coast today and into tomorrow. Right now the storm is basically using I-95 and DCA as its “pivot-point” as it strengthens and turns towards a more northerly trajectory. it really is a fascinating storm to watch unfold on the radar. The snow should move out of the region tonight, leaving behind 3-6 inches of snow east of I-95, with locally higher accumulations of 5-9 inches in parts of eastern Maryland and Delmarva.

Looking into the work week… the cold will hold on for a few days behind this system as Monday through Wednesday are forecast to be below normal. The gusty winds will hang around until Tuesday night, but relief is on the way! The second half of the week will feature a gradual warm up to above normal temperatures as a low pressure system develops over the mid-country and draws warm air up from the Gulf.

Thursday through Saturday should be rather nice in the region, with mild temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s and party to mostly cloudy skies (aside from a slight chance of rain on Thursday). The storm system in the mid-country will lift north and east into the Great Lakes and eastern Canada, and the trailing cold front will pass through the region next Sunday. Ahead of the cold front, scattered showers and maybe even a few rumbles of thunder are possible Saturday into Sunday. The region will cool down a bit behind the cold front going into the start of the work week next week, but not to the brutally-cold levels that we have been experiencing time and again this month.

Snowfall forecast for DCA and Montgomery County

Very In-My-Back-Yard (IMBY) forecast, but since I’ve been out of town and not keeping up with the weather I can’t really make a nice snowfall forecast.

With so much uncertainty with the cut-off for the big snowfall totals, I will go with 3-6″ of snow for DCA and Montgomery County (65% confidence), with higher totals (including 10″+) in eastern MD and 2-4″ further west in places like Leesburg, VA. There is about a 25% chance that DCA and MoCo could see higher than 6 in., and about a 10% chance that they could see less than 3 in.

This will be an event that will have to be closely followed on radar to see where the significant snowfall line sets up. The difference of a few tens of miles could be all it takes to go from “meh” to “wow this is a lot of snow!”

Either way, it looks like this snow storm will put DCA in the above normal snowfall category for December (we’re only ~1.2″ short of normal at this point), which would be a great start to a La Niña winter in the Mid-Atlantic as they tend to have below normal snowfall totals for most of the region.

Snow looks to be on the way

Looks like I’ll be eating my own words about not expecting much snow for the DC area from this system that the models haven’t been too much in agreement on. But now, Friday evening into the early, early morning hours of Saturday, many forecasts are saying there is a higher potential. Of course, reading MAD US Weather’s own Mark Ellinwood (see previous blog post) looks to have been a best bet. TV and government forecasters aren’t talking snow totals yet, but Mark’s numbers don’t seem to be too far off what the ‘inside’ word is. It may be a west to east pattern this time around. Basically, what I mean is that the snow totals won’t measure highest to lowest in bands that increase and decrease horizontally, but vertically. Areas to the east, closer to the ocean may see the higher totals, and less toward the mountains. This isn’t uncommon for these coast storms. But still tons to determine yet, and I’m going to get some extra sleep in preparation for covering the event if it pans out. (