WARNING: Technical discussion.
While there is a cold front approaching the area from the NW, the overall synoptic setup leaves much to be desired. The main player for severe weather today will be weak mesoscale forcing along with the cold front, which is visible this morning as lines of showers drape NE-SW over central OH, western PA and additionally over the southern Appalachians. Synoptically, a large area of high pressure moving off the coast leaves behind plenty of dry air in the region.
Upper-level forcing remains weak in our area as the jet stream remains well to our north. The jet could provide enough upper-level divergence for a small tornado risk in NoPA/EaPA and in NoNJ and SoNY, but speed shear will be weak further south. There is marginal directional shear in the lower levels throughout the region, but flow remains unidirectional in the mid and upper levels.
Steep low-level lapse rates will aid in creating strong outflows from mature storms, some of which could get to the severe level. CAPE and LI values are good, but dry air near the surface could hinder TCUs from forming. Storms that do form will largely be pulse-type, with isolated bowing cells possible.
All-in-all, I would expect today to perform much like the severe weather events we experienced early in the summer, which led to an under-performance based on the SPC outlooks. The severe threat in areas south of I-80 in central PA will be marginal at best.
Chase potential: 25%