What to Watch Fore(cast) – Sep 27 – Oct 3

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Highlights:

Hot and dry in the West – Very warm temperatures during the work week will provide some areas with record-breaking heat from the West Coast to the Rockies.

Wet week with flooding in the East – As the eastern U.S. gets pummeled by rain early this week, another round of heavy rain is expected during the second half of the work week.

Cool-down in the East – This weekend will be the beginning of a cool period in the East, with several days or more of below normal temperatures on the way.

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Discussion:

A large upper-level ridge produced record-breaking heat in the West, and above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. Some places in California hit their all-time highest temperatures today, producing numbers in the 108F-115F range. The worst of the heat is over along the Southwest Coast, but double-digit temperature anomalies are still in store for much of the west.

After a moderate dose of rain in the Mid-Atlantic and a good soaking in most of the Southeast, a short break in the rain will give way to another batch of moisture as a subtropical system converges with a stationary front that is just off the East Coast. This rainfall will retrograde back into the East Coast, missing parts of the southeast while providing moderate to heavy rainfalls in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Another 1-3+ inches of rain could come from this next system.

An area of high pressure will move into the Midwest and Southeast over the weekend, which will bring a reinforcing shot of cool air into the East. This could produce several days of temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal in the Midwest and Southeast, with -3 to -5 temperature departures in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The core of the cold will extend from this weekend into mid-week next week.


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