What to Watch Fore(cast) – Sep 6-12

NOTE: This was written yesterday, but has been copied to this site to add content. From now on, this site will be exclusive in having the discussion part of the post.

Highlights:

Hermine performs magic in the Gulf – A “surpise tropical storm” has popped up in the western Gulf of Mexico, but it will quickly move inland near the TX/Mexico border and dissipate. Already a strong tropical storm, Hermine could become a Cat. 1 before landfall.

More activity in the Atlantic – As Gaston tries to refire before heading into the Caribbean, more tropical waves coming off the African Coast could yield even more tropical systems this week.

Cool blasts trying to end the summer heat in the East – The transitional weather pattern brought a shot of cool, dry air into the region over the weekend. More systems that are expected to do the same thing are on the way. However, rainfall with these systems is rather scarce in the southern Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Southeast.

Regional drought worsens in the Mid-Atlantic – While some areas have had wet hot-spots this summer, a good portion of the Mid-Atlantic remains fairly dry as this week’s forecast calls for sunshine through the work week.

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Discussion:

Somewhat surprisingly, Tropical Storm Hermine has quickly formed in the western Gulf of Mexico and is intensifying rapidly in the short amount of time it has left before it makes landfall. Even more surprisingly, the NAM seemed to capture the storm’s inception the best this time around, but one must take into account that it’s been making fantasy storms in the Gulf all summer. Hermine already has an eye feature on radar as the circulation tightens in the storm:

Meanwhile, the remnants of Gaston continue to drift westward towards the Caribbean as it struggles to reform into a Depression. The models aren’t doing much with it right now, but more tropical waves coming off of the African Coast could produce more tropical cyclones later this week.

Storm systems producing active weather in the northern Plains and Midwest will keep bringing cool shots of air to the East Coast after short warm-up periods this week, but the dry air in place over most of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast will keep rain at bay as some areas get worse into drought. Downsloping off of the Appalachians has kept it particularly dry in VA and northern MD, which is starting to turn into a giant brown patch. Drought conditions also exist close to the coast, where plant life in parts of MD and most of NJ are beginning to feel the strain. There is a chance for some rain this weekend as the remnants of Hermine and a low pressure system work through the region, but how much rainfall the drought-stricken areas get may be over-hyped on the the GFS.



(Source: U.S. Drought Monitor)

We’ll be seeing more active weather over the next month as the tropical season hits full gear (the peak of the season is September 10th) and the fall transition creates more dynamic weather patterns across the U.S.


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