A period of warmer weather is in store for the Mid-Atlantic as we head into this week, but thunderstorms and severe weather could impact the region this week as the atmosphere tries to prime The Big One for the region. A subtropical ridge of high pressure over the Southeast will force several systems to lift north before reaching the Mid-Atlantic this week, but it may only be a matter of time before one storm can punch through and unleash its fury.
As low and high pressure systems move quickly across the country, the weather will fluctuate throughout this week and into next week. We will experience a period of above normal temperatures through mid-week, with northwesterly winds behind a cold front bringing a shot of cooler air into the region on Friday before temperatures begin to warm back up to slightly above normal over the weekend.
Depending on the timing of a cold frontal passage Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the Mid-Atlantic, with an isolated severe thunderstorms possible. Pre-frontal cloud cover could be an issue, with less daytime heating and more stable mid-levels hindering severe potential. The second half of the week will feature sunny skies as an area of high pressure moves in from the west. A shallow disturbance could increase cloud cover and bring some showers to the northern parts of the region late this weekend. I have a sneaking suspicion that the storm coming early next week could pack a surprising punch, given the favorable wind shear and decent mid-levels. Dry air at the surface will be the big What If as this storm evolves over the Mid-Atlantic.