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November 2010

What to Watch Fore(cast) – Nov 29 – Dec 5


Severe weather in the East – Severe storms with plenty of wind damage and isolated tornadoes are expected now until Wednesday morning/afternoon across the Southeast and East Coast.

Much needed rain – While severe storms aren’t necessarily the best way to get rid of a drought, the Mon-Tue system will help put a small dent into relieving the drought conditions in the Southeast and southern Midwest.

Quiet mid-country – A lull in the weather pattern will keep life easy through the middle of the country this week, with a weak disturbance late this week being the only blip on the radar.


Not this week… too much stuff happened today 😀

Mid-Atlantic Discussion – November 30 – December 1

The SPC has been slowly creeping the Slight severe area northwards, as is no surprise. At this point, I think that the Slight will end up along the SE PA and through the northern parts of NJ going into Wednesday morning. SNE may also have a “See Text” threat past 14Z.


As we get closer to the zero hour, it’s become easier to decipher the model trends as far as where the warm front will be able to lift to and who is under the gun Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The main area of concern will be NC/VA/SoMD where the dynamics and the warm sector can interact the most efficiently to produce severe weather in the form of a linear SSW-NNE line of storms along the cold front. The severe threat will extend up through the northern parts of the region, but as the SPC stated mid-level stability is more of a factor in areas north and west of the D.C. area, which means less reports and slightly weaker winds along with a lesser chance for tornadoes.

The GFS appears to have a better grasp on the timing, but the NAM’s instability parameters are much more favored due to the mesoscale nature of the event. However, as we saw with the severe event from two weeks ago, neither model had a true grasp on how unstable the LL air actually was. This could be attributable to the strong advection of low-level instability by the LL jet, which was likely mishandled and under-represented by the models.

All-in-all, I wouldn’t be surprised if this ended up being similar to our 11/16 event, with the severe reports shifted about 150-200 miles south. D.C. impact from the line of storms will likely be around 4-6 AM Wednesday morning.


Very cold start this morning

We are getting quite a blast of arctic temperatures in late November. Temperatures this morning are into the low 20s in and around the DC region and below freezing temperatures as far south as central and North Carolina. Interesting, it is warmer along the Canadian border in Minnesota than it is in the DC area. Some slightly warmer temperatures are on tap today and tomorrow, but not much above normal (50°F). Mark will elaborate more on the meteorological side of things today or tomorrow.

Other things on tap are early initiation of the Great Plains Storm Chase Expedition 2011 which both myself and Mark will be going on this year. This will be Mark’s inaugural central plains chase and my seventh overall (going back to 1997 and since 2006). Most of the planning pages will appear on my subsite ( which is part of my main site at WeatherWarrior.Net. The first page so far is a base Cost Worksheet using some past years data and current information to help properly budget for this trip.

The good thing about chasing this year is that MAD US Weather will be a source for following us with daily logs, forecasts, nowcasts and more being posted here in the blog. You’ll also be able to easily link to the live video stream when we are actively chasing, and track us even live even on down days.

Mid-Atlantic – The Week Ahead (Nov 28 – Dec 5)

The week starts off on a cool note as temperatures sit just below normal for today, but sunny skies and light winds will help make it feel like a nice late November day. Temperatures will warm to normal levels tomorrow as mostly cloudy skies start to move into the region tomorrow evening ahead of a potent storm system. Light rain will start Tuesday morning across the region ahead of the system’s main cold front, which will keep conditions damp but mild as temperatures sit in the 50s.

The big action comes Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning across the region, when a strong southerly flow develops at the lower levels and draws the conditionally-unstable air northwards into the region. This will allow for convection and thunderstorms, which is expected to quickly develop along the cold front Tuesday as it pushes northeastward. We could be looking at something very similar to what happened two weeks ago on the 16th, when a line of severe storms moved through and brought damage reports as far north as southern NY State. While this system may not get the warm air that far northward, I believe that our region will be able to get into the warm sector of this system, which will bring the severe potential up through southern PA. There is definitely concern for wind damage and a few isolated tornadoes as the line of storms rolls through.

Once this system passes, will will see mostly sunny skies and slightly below normal temperatures through the second half of the week (highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s, lows in the low to mid 30s), with a rain shower or two a possibility as a little bit of moisture lingers over the region. There will be some rain/snow showers on the windward side of the Appalachians, but there won’t be much to speak of along the East Coast. It looks like December 5th will be a snow-less day for the D.C. area.

Add-on: I should note that snow on the 5th is not completely out of the question as a potential system forms off the East Coast late this weekend, but it’s not looking good at this point.

Storms ready to go in the Midwest and Plains

10% tornado risk in Arkansas and Missouri for today… could get interesting.

Here’s a METAR report from St. Louis, MO this morning, showing a heavy thunderstorm with occasional lightning at 7am with a temperature of only 36 degrees!

KSTL 241151Z 10018G26KT 3SM +TSRA BR BKN031CB OVC047 02/01 A2999 RMK AO2 PK WND 11026/1149 TSB40 PRESFR SLP161 OCNL LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV NE P0030 60051 70051 T00220011 10028 20022 58043

Up north for Thanksgiving

I’ll be driving up to Central NY tomorrow for Thanksgiving… back on Sunday. Tornado Thursday will come as scheduled, and I’ll take some pics of lake-effect snow for you all to enjoy and be jealous of.

You can have the snow though, because I don’t want any of it. I’ll make sure to bring a snowball back with me so I can have a one-man snowball fight with one of my co-workers! (if I can get my hands on a cooler)