The week starts off on a cool note as temperatures sit just below normal for today, but sunny skies and light winds will help make it feel like a nice late November day. Temperatures will warm to normal levels tomorrow as mostly cloudy skies start to move into the region tomorrow evening ahead of a potent storm system. Light rain will start Tuesday morning across the region ahead of the system’s main cold front, which will keep conditions damp but mild as temperatures sit in the 50s.
The big action comes Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning across the region, when a strong southerly flow develops at the lower levels and draws the conditionally-unstable air northwards into the region. This will allow for convection and thunderstorms, which is expected to quickly develop along the cold front Tuesday as it pushes northeastward. We could be looking at something very similar to what happened two weeks ago on the 16th, when a line of severe storms moved through and brought damage reports as far north as southern NY State. While this system may not get the warm air that far northward, I believe that our region will be able to get into the warm sector of this system, which will bring the severe potential up through southern PA. There is definitely concern for wind damage and a few isolated tornadoes as the line of storms rolls through.
Once this system passes, will will see mostly sunny skies and slightly below normal temperatures through the second half of the week (highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s, lows in the low to mid 30s), with a rain shower or two a possibility as a little bit of moisture lingers over the region. There will be some rain/snow showers on the windward side of the Appalachians, but there won’t be much to speak of along the East Coast. It looks like December 5th will be a snow-less day for the D.C. area.
Add-on: I should note that snow on the 5th is not completely out of the question as a potential system forms off the East Coast late this weekend, but it’s not looking good at this point.