Severe risk in the Midwest – Ongoing storms continue to produce severe weather tonight, but another threat for severe weather will come mid-week.
Wet Thanksgiving in the East – Much of the East Coast will have cloudy skies and rain (with some snow further north at night) this Thursday.
Very cold in the West – The western half of the country will be stuck with much below normal temperatures through the work week.
New pattern setting up? – Models are suggesting a change in the pattern as things evolve this week and next week.
Low pressure systems have been struggling to push into the Southeast due to a recurring ridge of high pressure over the Southeast, which has caused the lows to lift northward before reaching the Appalachians and the East Coast. This scenario will likely get played out for the next few systems that roll through the country (including today’s system and tomorrow’s developing systems). This storm track will allow for severe weather to occur along the systems’ cold fronts, which would give the U.S. a nice boost to the overall severe wind/hail/tornado counts before the end of the year.
This pattern may be consistent through at least the first week of December or until we do end up seeing that first real push of much below normal temperatures along the Eastern third of the country. With the models coming up with a different long-range solution every day, it will be hard to determine exactly when until it’s but a scant five days out.
The system developing in the mid-country tonight and into tomorrow will be a big rainmaker in the East on Thursday, meaning a lot of us will be out playing football in the mud instead of a dry field. It will be a good day to stay inside and enjoy family, friends, food and football in front of a cozy fireplace. After that, we’ll see a cool-down with lake effect rain and snow possible off of the Great Lakes through Saturday. Areas W/WSW of the Lakes could see some good snowfall totals out of this week.
A persistent upper-level trough over the West will keep things rather cold there this week. 1-3 additional feet of snow could get added to the mountains in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle could even see a little more accumulation to go with the 2 inches of snow they already got this week!