Archive for 2011

January 2012 temperature forecast – Final

Blocking has failed to develop once again, leading to warm anomalies across most of the U.S. overall. There are some signals indicating we could see a prolonged turnaround in temperatures towards the second half of the month, but it looks like the warmth will control the pattern overall through January. Arctic air could start to […]

Christmas weekend snow thoughts and January update

UPDATE 12/22: Doesn’t look like it’s going to be a white Christmas unless you try to scrape out a little orographically-induced snow in the western Appalachians (which even then is a bit of a stretch unless the 500mb vort. from the northern stream intensifies like on the 12z GFS). I won’t put chances at 0% […]

Snowfall Verification for Dec 7-8

  Quite a trying forecast, but overall it wasn’t a complete loss. Verified the mountain areas and highest totals fairly well, but the more heavily populated areas left much to be desired. Looking back, I could have been less generous with the 2-4 inch range in northern MD and southeastern PA, but other than that […]

Winter Storm Threat: Dec 7-8 (final call)

Had to make some big changes in the northern areas… the boundary layer temperatures did not cool off as much as I thought it would on the models in addition to a quicker end to the snowfall.   I think that a couple of areas will be able to top out just above 8 inches […]

Winter Storm Threat: Dec 7-8 (first call)

Think 10/29 redux, only the temps and QPF line up a bit better for the changeover on the back-end:   The upper-level vort. max is potent enough to create an area of strong dynamics along the back edge of the system, which will pull cooler air down to the surface and make it cool enough […]

Snow threat for Thursday, 8 Dec 2011

There is still a lot of uncertainty with a storm system that is expected to impact the Mid-Atlantic this Thursday, but there is now enough model support to think of the storm as a legitimate threat. It is hard to determine where the rain/snow line is going to be at this point… I will try […]

December 2011 temperature forecast – Final

The forecast is based off of weak signals provided by the La Niña, -PDO, -PNA, +AO and +NAO. December is probably going to be messy temperature-wise, so confidence in the forecast is low. It has been a very frustrating forecast. This is in STARK contrast to my forecast from mid-October: (forecast anomalies based on the […]