Snowfall Verification for Jan 26-27

Using another snowfall site from the NWS in addition to the site I linked in my previous verification post, I came up with this for the snowfall totals:

 
The most striking differences are the snowfall totals in WV and the snowfall totals from MD north of DC up through southeast PA and into central NJ. These areas were under-forecast by 2-4″, which was partly due to the better-than-expected snow totals from the first shot of precipitation (which was 1-4″ when I was expecting 0.5-2″) and partly due to the northern extent of the snowfall, which was about 50-100 miles further north than I (and the models) predicted for the 1-2″ contour. This snow also helped the second snowfall to start accumulating a bit faster since there was no loss due to melting (which would have been minor anyway). The higher totals in central NJ were due to better banding than I expected. Also, the conversion over to snow happened a little more quickly than forecast, which accounted for an additional 1-2″ of snow.

Overall, I’d give my forecast a B. The general contouring and cut-off areas were excellent, but higher snow totals brought down the grade.


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