Archive for February, 2011

Brush fire pictures from the Germantown, MD area

These were all taken from the same area where the power lines run north from Rt. 28 up until the end of Brandon Way Rd. in Darnestown, MD. The time I was there was approx. 1:45-2:45 pm. This was from the same area as the GIF animation in the previous post. If you would like […]

Winds helping a brush fire in Germantown, MD

To add to the wind discussion in the previous post, here’s an animation of smoke from a brush fire (unconfirmed) in the Germantown, MD area:   There is also a brush fire near BWI in Hanover. Very dry conditions and strong winds are helping the brush fires intensify and spread quickly. EDIT: I thought this […]

Winds gusting to 60-70+ mph possible in the Mid-Atlantic today

Winds are already gusting to 50-60 mph across the region, and it will be getting even stronger as we head into the afternoon! Gusts of 60-70 mph are possible, and could even reach hurricane force (74+ mph)! Wind speeds of 58+ mph is the minimum reading for a thunderstorm to be considered severe. BWI has […]

Summer 2011 (JJA) temperature anomaly forecast – First look

The recent warmth has inspired me to post my initial thoughts of how this summer will turn out. This is more of a gut-cast than a full-fledged forecast. I’m a big proponent using recent verifications (1- to 3-month lead on seasonal anomalies) to predict pattern changes and trends based on analogs with similar ENSO and […]

What to Watch Fore(cast) – Feb 14-21

Highlights: Eastern warm up part two – After topping out near 70F in parts of the Mid-Atlantic, the East will see another, even stronger warm up this Thursday and Friday before a mostly-dry cold front moves through. Unsettled Midwest – Rain moving through Thursday-Friday and a rain/snow storm system on Sunday-Monday will keep conditions rather […]

Mid-Atlantic – The Week Ahead (Feb 13-20)

The main story for this week is the changeover to mild, spring-like conditions throughout the region as an upper-level ridge builds over the Southeast and advects warmer air up from the south and west. Valentine’s Day celebrators will notice a bit of a difference between tomorrow and last Valentine’s Day, which featured highs in the […]

Snowfall Verification for Feb 9-10

Overall, this storm was an under-performer in the middle of the region compared to my forecast. The models actually did a good job in capturing this “snow hole” in central VA and central NC. Totals in those areas generally ranged from 0.25″-0.5″ and there was some mixing in southern and eastern NC.   Totals in […]