What to Watch Fore(cast) – Feb 14-21

Highlights:

Eastern warm up part two – After topping out near 70F in parts of the Mid-Atlantic, the East will see another, even stronger warm up this Thursday and Friday before a mostly-dry cold front moves through.

Unsettled Midwest – Rain moving through Thursday-Friday and a rain/snow storm system on Sunday-Monday will keep conditions rather damp in the Midwest during the second half of this week.

Snow in the West – 1-2+ feet of snow is possible in the western mountains this week as far south as central CA and the Four Corners region as a trough digs into the West.

High and dry in the Southeast – A subtropical high over the Southeast will keep the area enveloped in warm and dry conditions through most of the week.

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Discussion:

A persistent subtropical ridge over the Southeast and an upper-level trough over the West will set up an interesting week in weather as the pattern shift brings a welcome relief from the cold to the eastern half of the country. After topping out in the mid 60s to lower 70s on Valentine’s Day, the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast look to go even warmer this Thursday and Friday as winds from the south and west pump warm air into the eastern U.S. This weekend should bring near normal temperatures to most of the East, but even that’s better than the -5 to -10 anomalies the East has been seeing lately. The subtropical ridge will keep storm systems from entering the Southeast for most of the week, so a mostly sunny and dry pattern will keep conditions rather pleasant in that region (though isolated afternoon showers are certainly possible during the second half of the week).

An upper-level trough will take a hold of the West, bringing plenty of cold and snow with it. the Mountain West could see snowfall accumulations of two or more feet this week as several systems dig into the region. As these storms trek east, they will lift northeastward into the Midwest and southeastern Canada. This will mean wet and possibly stormy weather from the Plains up through the Northeast. While this week looks pretty quiet in terms of thunderstorm activity, next week could be a different story.


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