What to Watch Fore(cast) – Feb 7-14

Snow threat forecast for the Thursday storm coming later!

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Highlights:

A shot of snow early in the Apps – A quick round of 2-4″+ will move up the western side of the Appalachians into the Northeast Monday and Tuesday

Lake-effect machine lives again – Wednesday and Thursday will bring a good round of lake-effect snow to the Great Lakes, which could result in another foot or more of snow in places that have already exceeded their yearly normals (especially in Upstate NY).

Messy mid-week system – A winter storm will be putting down snow from the Southern Plains eastwards through the Southeast and into the southern Mid-Atlantic. Totals won’t be too high to the east, but the affected Plains states could see 6″+ accumulations.

Weekend warm up in the East – A nice February thaw period will start this weekend across the South and East, which should continue through most of next week.

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Discussion:

Storm #1 is heading up through the eastern U.S. right now as it tracks into eastern Canada. This storm has an inland low and is developing a coastal low, and these two together will produce some snowfall over the Northeast over the next day or so. Widespread areas of 2-4″ of snow accumulation are forecast for the western Appalachians through the Northeast. Along the coastal areas in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, it looks like it will be mostly rain or drier.

Storm #2 is diving into the Plains, and will develop and swing into the Southeast by late Wednesday. This storm could be a real winter storm for the Southern/Central Plains as widespread snowfall of 4-8″ and localized amounts of 12″+ are possible in Oklahoma and Kansas starting late Tuesday and going through Wednesday. This storm is forecast to weaken a bit as it moves into the Southeast, but a band of 2-4″ of snow is still possible through Tennessee, Kentucky, the Carolinas and southern Virginia as it pushes off the East Coast on Thursday. The snow could fall as far south as central Alabama and Georgia.

Another round of cold air will take over Wednesday and Thursday in the East, but change is on the way! Our friend the sub-tropical ridge will develop over the Southeast and it will change the pattern up for awhile as the eastern half of the U.S. experiences near normal to above normal temperatures this weekend and through most of next week. This thawing period may not be permanent, however, so enjoy it while it lasts!


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