Archive for March, 2011
Had jury duty yesterday, so I couldn’t make a map! I’m a bit lucky that I held out as models are finally figuring this storm out and cutting down precipitation totals significantly in PA and NJ. This is mostly due to later cyclogenesis and less moisture available since it was cut off by convection in [...]
This will probably be my only forecast for the event, but if things unfold drastically different in the morning I will make some adjustments. Models keep showing accumulating snow through northern VA into MD, but the thicknesses and surface temperatures just aren’t there to realize the snowfall potential. It’ll be a cold, cold rain for [...]
Highlights: A mess of storms in the East – Forecasters and weather models alike are trying to wrap their collective heads around a series of systems which could bring a variety of precipitation patterns to the eastern U.S. by the end of the week. The cold pattern tries to end – The cold will ease [...]
After bombing last night’s snowfall forecast (verification coming later… it was way too dry and the rates were too low for most to see accumulation), it’s time to pick up the pieces and look at what we’ve got coming in the week ahead. Skies will cloud up in the southern half of the region tonight [...]
Decided to shrink down the snow totals a bit for the 1-2″ range on the NE edge and for the 2-4″ range for the eastern and southern areas. The 4-8″ actually expanded a bit, but got shifted further south. It will be a battle of boundary layer temperatures and thicknesses tonight.
A suppressed storm system will move through the region Saturday into Sunday as a vort. max travels east-to-west over northern VA into MD. The SFC low is progged to move across the Carolinas, which will be favorable in getting a layer of below-zero temperatures at the SFC. However, it should be noted that the winds [...]
TOMORROW: A rather unusual severe weather setup as a low pressure system rides along a frontal boundary that is NW-SE oriented from central OH into central MD. Warm-sector instability on the order of 500-1000+ J/kg SBCAPE will develop over WV and western VA during the afternoon, which will help initiate a few areas of showers [...]