Winter Storm Threat: Mar 26-27 (first call)

A suppressed storm system will move through the region Saturday into Sunday as a vort. max travels east-to-west over northern VA into MD. The SFC low is progged to move across the Carolinas, which will be favorable in getting a layer of below-zero temperatures at the SFC. However, it should be noted that the winds in the mid to upper levels will be out of the WSW across the southern parts of the region, which could allow for a nose of above freezing temperatures to move into southern WV and VA. This will cause mixing issues with sleet and freezing rain that will hurt the overall snowfall totals across the southernmost parts of the region. The wintry mix will extend into northern NC before changing over to all rain in central NC.

 
I am siding with the GFS snowfall contouring for now since it seems like it has a better handle on the mid-level temperatures and the warm nose that will move through the southern parts of the region. I also did account for a slight northerly trend in the eastern parts of the region, which is consistent with trends that yesterday’s storm experienced further north into NY and southern Canada, where accumulations occurred a good distance further north than anticipated.

Risks: A northern trend could bring the 1″+ totals into southern PA, and a colder solution as depicted on the NAM could bring the rain/snow line a bit further south towards the VA/NC border.


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