A tenative look at the first week of Plains chasing

If we are able to leave on the 30th or really early on May 1st, it looks like we could hit up a potent storm system in the Midwest on the 1st-2nd before making it all the way into the Plains. After that, a progressive upper-level ridge in the West could bring a lull in the action until another system tries to push it east and break it down going into May 6th.

On the flip side, let’s see what the models have been doing wrong lately. Past the day+7 lead time (starting in week two), the models have struggled to capture the effects of the soil moisture across the South and Southeast, which has helped to keep temperatures above normal in the Southern Plains, Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic. Conversely, the below normal temperatures in the northern and western areas have come in cooler than forecast, which would lead me to think that the -PNA influence and soil moisture could alter the storm track that is presented by the models. While not negating the transient ridge in the West during the first week of May, it could definitely verify weaker than anticipated, which would allow the ridge to break down more at the end of the first week of May when a storm system moves in off of the Pacific. This will hopefully reset the pattern and push us into an active severe weather pattern as we head into the second week of May.


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