Mid-Atlantic Discussion – Jun 23-24, 2011

It’s been awhile, but I felt motivated to write about Thu/Fri… it’s been so long since the last organized severe threat (i.e. not this pulse-storm and failed MCS crap we’ve been getting) that I felt a true discussion was in order.

Though the main low is expected to be stacked/decaying as it pushes into the eastern U.S., the system should remain organized enough for the region to experience severe storms this Thursday and Friday. Along with the upper-low, the system also features a moderate jet streak ejecting out of the base of the trough, which will help give the storms upper-level support and increase storm longevity. A cold front moving through the region could help initiate/sustain storms as well.

The atmosphere will be somewhat unstable as well, though cloud cover and precipitation remain concerns as mid-level lapse rates could suffer. Regardless, so long as there is some sunshine, temperatures should climb into the lower 90s during the afternoon, creating favorable low-level lapse rates. Coupled with decent/good wind shear, the atmosphere seems favorable for at least some severe weather as we head into the end of the work week.

One Comments

  • Michael Jennings

    June 20, 2011

    I took up storm photography a couple of years ago after retirement. Just want to let you know how much I enjoy viewing your site and hearing your opinions. Given my very limited knowledge of severe weather forecasting and being a Piedmont N.C. resident, your predictions are particularly appreciated.

    I suspect I’ll be somewhere east in search of storms towards the end of the week…..thanks


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