So what’s on tap for July?

Waaaaaaay back in February, I made this little number for July:

EDIT: And here’s the updated look for this month:

It looks to be a decent forecast going ahead, with warm adjustments likely needed in the South, Southeast, southern Midwest and southern Mid-Atlantic. The combination of a lingering upper-level ridge and extreme drought conditions in the South/Southeast are the two main attributors to the need for warm changes.

Looking back at the controversial 2010 analog, it did well in capturing some of the extreme heat areas of 2011. However, much cooler temperatures were found in the West and Northeast in 2011 compared to 2010, and obviously the above-normal extremes were not as high as 2010 in most areas. Most of these differences can be accounted for by the strong -AO/-NAO combination we had in 2011, whereas 2010’s AO/NAO values were close to normal overall. When 2010 is coupled with some of the ENSO analogs (strong Niña in the winter that weakened to neutral conditions in the early summer) and drought is accounted for, the June 2011 map appears.

For the Mid-Atlantic, July should be another warm month as the teleconnections seem to indicate a similar pattern to June in the eastern U.S., yielding temperatures of around 2.5-3.5 degrees above normal. So long as we see a continued -AO/-NAO/-PNA pattern to go along with the more long term -PDO/+AMO signals, we should see similar anomalies appear in July.

As for the rest of the country, one of the bigger risks is going to be where the upper-level ridge settles once we head into the middle of the month. We’re already seeing hints of the ridge wanting to move either into the mid-country or into the West going into this weekend. Should the ridge linger out west, it would cause the Northern Plains to be warmer than my July forecast and/or could make the mountain West warmer than expected.

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