Archive for August, 2011

Hurricane Irene – Chase Pictures (part 1)

Here’s some processed images originally taken by my Droid X… descriptions will come later. From the 26th: From the 27th:

Hurricane Irene – Tracking and Chase Potential

Now that we’re getting within a reasonable amount of forecast accuracy, I figured it’s time to make a post about Irene and my chasing prospects. The models have been consistently trending east with Irene for the past couple of days, but the most recent runs have inched back west as the synoptic setup out west […]

Mid-Atlantic Discussion – Aug 21, 2011

It seems like I jinx our severe weather every time I make a post about it. We’ve been faring a lot better with the pulse-type storms than with any sort of organized system this summer, but unfortunately you can’t really chase pulsers since they almost always weaken before you can get to them… not to […]

Models showing tropical threat to the Southeast late next week

Now that even the Euro Op. is on board with developing a tropical system tracking towards the Southeast coastline, I decided that it’s time to do a write-up about it. The American models have been fairly consistent with bringing a tropical system into the Southeast, having shown the tropical system for over a dozen consecutive […]

Winter 2011-2012 (DJF) precipitation forecast

The Mid-Atlantic will struggle to get to near normal, but most should be able to edge into that category as the southeastern Mid-Atlantic goes drier than normal again. As for snowfall, I expect the Mid-Atlantic to be near normal to slightly above normal (90-125%) throughout the region. I think the storm tracks will be similar […]

Mid-Atlantic Discussion – Aug 14, 2011

Clouds and weak LL winds will hurt severe chances today, but okay lapse rates, decent UL support and dewpoints in the lower 70s should help make things a little interesting this afternoon. Secondary low development in NC/S VA certainly won’t help our poor LL wind situation as the SFC winds weaken and become more variable. […]

Winter 2011-2012 (DJF) temperature forecast – First look

Winter 2011-2012: The monthly breakdown: METHODOLOGY: Used rough ENSO analogs (neutral ENSO to weak Nina summer going into weak/moderate Nina), coupled with NAO analogs based on low sun activity leading to -NAO in the winter. I also included -PDO to an extent, put all the factors together and weighted accordingly. Not all analogs fit the […]