Mid-Atlantic Discussion – Aug 9, 2011

Aha! Another chance for storms! But what’s THIS?!? Latest models say best dynamics will be to the north in eastern PA and NJ?

If enough instability can get going up that way, that’s where I’ll be chasing tomorrow. Pretty nice wind field coupled with modest CAPE, with one of the stronger vort. maxes we’ve seen in the region lately and left-exit region goodness from the 300mb jet… things are shaping up nicely per the latest models.

For the Mid-Atlantic states south of the Mason-Dixon, there will still be a severe threat as this shortwave trough moves through the region. The secondary low and its associated cold front will pass through the region tomorrow, providing the risk for severe winds and possibly severe hail. There is a very, VERY minor chance of tornadoes along and just ahead of the front, as some low-level veering is possible but will likely be dominated by the very deep column of unidirectional shear.

Of course, all of this stuff is changing on a run-by-run basis and we could be looking at something completely different tomorrow… it will all depend on what the next 18 hours does in terms of rain, clouds and timing and placement of the developing secondary low.

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