Models showing tropical threat to the Southeast late next week

Now that even the Euro Op. is on board with developing a tropical system tracking towards the Southeast coastline, I decided that it’s time to do a write-up about it.

The American models have been fairly consistent with bringing a tropical system into the Southeast, having shown the tropical system for over a dozen consecutive runs. More and more of the European ensemble members, along with the operational, are starting to pick up on it as well. The spread for landfall has been anywhere from Alabama to the Carolinas, but the general timing and region has been fairly consistent. The European models have been more reluctant to develop this system, but the latest run does show better development just off the East Coast. Despite model agreement, this will have to be watched with great scrutiny as it is still a ways out and could change drastically at any time.

The key thing to take away from the models at this range is that the overall pattern is becoming more favorable for a U.S. landfall, regardless of if/when a tropical system develops. The NHC has just labeled this potential system as an invest, so we will have more eyes and models tracking it very soon.

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