Winter 2011-2012 (DJF) temperature forecast – First look

Winter 2011-2012:

The monthly breakdown:

METHODOLOGY:

Used rough ENSO analogs (neutral ENSO to weak Nina summer going into weak/moderate Nina), coupled with NAO analogs based on low sun activity leading to -NAO in the winter. I also included -PDO to an extent, put all the factors together and weighted accordingly. Not all analogs fit the NAO/PDO correlations, but still fit most of the requirements.

ANALOGS:
in [year (weight)] format

1995 (more)
2008 (more)
1970 (normal)
2000 (normal)
1962 (less)
2010 (less)

NOTE: Anomalies are against 1971-2000 normals.


3 Comments

  • SteveinMaine

    August 21, 2011

    Hi, Mark. Great site you’ve got! Question re these temp predictions, pls: are the predicted anomalies against the new 1981-2010 climate norms, or the old 1971-2000?

    Reply
  • SteveinMaine

    August 21, 2011

    Whoops! Just answered my own question by reading your post more closely! Sorry about that. It’s 1971-2000. If you’d used the new 1981-2010, these anomalies would be even more significant from norm, on the cold side at least, right? My winters here in southern Maine under the new norm are more than 1F higher through DJF than they were previously.

    Reply
  • Nathaniel

    August 21, 2011

    Great forecast!! although i think it’s a bit too warm for the south central states, especially texas. the ridge sitting over that area should collapse allowing the cold to spill strait down the plains, like last year. otherwise, i like it!

    Reply

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