Overall I’d give my summer 2011 forecast a B+, a grade worthy of a forecast that used one of the hottest summers on record as its main analog to forecast what ended up being yet another record-setting summer of heat. On a month-to-month scale, I’d give June an A-, July a C and August a B. The one thing that really hurt this forecast was just the sheer extent of the heat, especially over Texas and Oklahoma where extreme drought occurred. Otherwise, the pattern was recognized fairly well, with warm anomalies across the eastern two-thirds of the country and a cooler West Coast.
Summer 2011 (based off of 1971-2000 30-year normals):
The monthly breakdown:
And here’s summer 2010 (left) next to summer 2011 (right)… what I would consider a grade A forecast:
I also must remember to do something like this for last winter, as I managed to completely forget about doing the winter verification.