TS Maria & Nate named today; seem to be minimal threat to US

While it is still too early to know where Tropical Storm Maria and Tropical Storm Nate will be heading for sure, initial forecasts keep both systems away from U.S. soil. Both became named storms today (Maria at 11am EDT, Nate at 5pm EDT), and both will be fairly interesting to track in the coming days.

TS Maria is expected to stay on the weaker side as it tracks from the central Atlantic up through the Bahamas. The latest model guidance indicates that Maria should recurve before it can make a U.S. landfall. The upper-level pattern does not favor a U.S. landfall at this time.

TS Nate, currently in the Bay of Campeche, is forecast to drift northward into the western Gulf of Mexico before it turns westward and makes a landfall in northern Mexico. Despite growing model consensus on this solution, Nate will be highly sensitive to subtle changes in the steering winds, which means a U.S. landfall is not out of the question (though it seems unlikely at this point).


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