Archive for October, 2011

Snowfall Verification for Oct 29

  I’d give that a B+ …probably the best verification yet! The WV/VA mountains and western PA contouring was off, especially along the southern edge of the mountains, but from central VA and south-central PA and points northeast verification was excellent. Virtually nailed the rain/snow line and sharp gradient along the eastern edge. GFS actually […]

Winter Storm Threat: Oct 29 (final call)

Here’s the final snow map… it’s crazy for the northern folks. Waited until the 12z Euro came out to make sure it agreed with what my latest thoughts were with respect to this storm. Widespread 4-8″ of wet snow to bring down lots of branches and such that still have plenty of leaves on them. […]

Winter Storm Threat: Oct 29 (first call)

The storm will start to develop over NC/VA Friday night as a strong 500mb vort. max dives down from the northern Plains and phases with a short-wave traveling across the southern U.S. As this energy moves closer to the East Coast, a surface low will form off the NC coastline and rapidly deepen as it […]

Models try to lock in on a coastal “winter” storm

For all of the non-mountain Mid-Altantic people out there, I’ll go ahead and say right off the bat that it’s unlikely we’ll see any snow from this event. If this system does develop, it will likely be cold rain throughout, with a slight chance of seeing some snow in the air (NOTE: not accumulating) early […]

Winter 2011-2012 (DJF) forecast – Update

Here’s the updated forecast for this winter. I used the same six analog years, with different weights (more below). IMPORTANT: The updated outlooks use the NEW 30-year normals (1981-2010), whereas the original forecast used the OLD normals (1971-2000). Overall, there were no drastic changes to the forecast. Winter 2011-2012: The monthly breakdown: ANALOGS: in [year […]

Warmer temps are on the way… but how warm?

The tyranny of cold, damp and miserable weather is over for the time being in the Mid-Atlantic as a giant ridge of high pressure starts to build into the eastern U.S. The next few days will feature near normal to slightly below normal temperatures, but we’re looking at a warmer period ahead once we head […]