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2011

Snow flakes in the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow?

Some snow flakes could mix in with the rain tomorrow in the Mid-Atlantic as colder temperatures push into the region. No accumulation is expected for most, but some of the higher elevations in the Appalachians could see a little accumulation.

Surface temperatures are likely going to be too warm for any sort of accumulation in the lower elevations… with most areas in the upper 30s or lower 40s. The freezing level is forecast to be somewhere in the 925-950 mb range, which gives the snow enough time to reach the surface before melting.

Snowfall rates are expected to be fairly light if/when the changeover does occur, which is more evidence that the chance of accumulation in the lower elevations is slim.

EDIT:

Here’s a sounding of the 12z GFS forecast for 1pm tomorrow… the 12z NAM has a lower freezing level than the GFS.


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Image courtesy of Twisterdata.com

New page – Weather Links

I decided to spend some time collecting my favorite weather links on one page so that other can see what I use and maybe use it themselves. I just put on my main ones that I use just about every day on there, and I plan on adding more in the future as I dig through all of my old bookmarks.

Weather Links

The link will be permanently affixed to the top navigation section. Enjoy!

Foggy sunrise in Maryland

It has been quite foggy the last couple of mornings in the DC/MD region. I snapped a shot of the sun rising through the fog this morning in Gaithersburg, MD:

The fall colors give it a nice added touch. Gaithersburg is a little past peak with the leaves, and I expect I’ll see a lot of leaves on the ground tomorrow as the cold front kicks up some wind in its wake today.

Hurricane Irene Video

I finally got around to going through all of my Hurricane Irene footage and I put six minutes of it together in a nice summary video:

The video’s description:

Chronological video clips of Hurricane Irene from 26-27 August 2011.

Locations filmed in order (all in NC): Rt. 70, Atlantic Beach, Morehead City, Beaufort, Rt. 70 (again), Rt. 17, Rt. 64 and Columbia.

Video start time is approx. 5:30pm on the 26th and runs through about 1:30pm on the 27th. Tornado damage at the end of the video was along Rt. 64 just 1-2 miles east of the center of Columbia.

I chased with Jason Foster. This was my 1st hurricane chase, and it was Jason’s 8th.

Oct. 29 snow pictures

Just posting some re-touched snow pictures from the October 29 storm. All of these were posted to my Twitter account, which you should follow to get daily thoughts and updates!

These were all shot on my Droid X, as I have yet to invest in a DSLR camera (which I plan on doing before the next chase season).

The first shot was just after daybreak, as some surprise early event sleet and snow gave us a nice base layer to build on when the back end of the system hit during the afternoon (which is when the other pictures were taken). Location is Germantown, MD.

 

Snowfall Verification for Oct 29

 
I’d give that a B+ …probably the best verification yet!

The WV/VA mountains and western PA contouring was off, especially along the southern edge of the mountains, but from central VA and south-central PA and points northeast verification was excellent. Virtually nailed the rain/snow line and sharp gradient along the eastern edge.

GFS actually did better than the NAM regarding the contouring along the western edge (not sure about the actual totals).

Winter Storm Threat: Oct 29 (final call)

Here’s the final snow map… it’s crazy for the northern folks. Waited until the 12z Euro came out to make sure it agreed with what my latest thoughts were with respect to this storm. Widespread 4-8″ of wet snow to bring down lots of branches and such that still have plenty of leaves on them. This is going to be messy for the areas receiving several inches of snow or more.

 
Localized areas of greater than 12 inches are possible in eastern PA and northern NJ. The northern VA/MD/WV mountains could squeeze out 8-12 inches in higher elevations.

I went with a solution similar to the 12z Euro, which is kind of a blend of the 12z GFS and NAM. This is perfect for me, since once we get this close to the event I find that a near-even blend of the GFS and NAM solutions works pretty well most of the time.