Archive for February, 2012

March 2012 temperature forecast

Another warm month is on tap for the eastern two-thirds of the country as we enter the start of meteorological spring: Risks are to the warm side throughout the country as the “torch” continues. Many indices point towards warmth in the eastern US as you have a +NAO, +AO, -PNA, +WPO, and +EPO going into […]

Mid-Atlantic Discussion – Feb 29, 2012

We end the last day of meteorological winter not with snow, but with severe as storms threaten the region for the second time within a week. Currently, there are two tornado watches active in the region… one that extends into most of WV, and another that encompasses extreme southeastern WV and most of western VA. […]

Mid-Atlantic Discussion – Feb 24, 2012

I can’t believe I haven’t done one of these since August… been too long. The first real chance for severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic this year has arrived! Tomorrow’s looking increasingly promising for at least some severe wind threat in addition to an isolated tornado or two and maybe some hail. Strong post-frontal winds and […]

Snowfall Verification for Feb 19

While my first two maps left much to be desired, I finally got the storm zoned in on my final forecast: The southern edge of the system did a bit better than expected east of the mountains as the snowfall rates were able to overcome the above freezing surface temperatures. The northern edge of the […]

Winter Storm Threat: Feb 19 (final call)

Following the latest model trends, it looks like another bust for the DC folks:   Finally a decent snow storm for the southern areas, but the DC region will miss out on the good totals once again. A coating to an inch seems like the best forecast for DCA at this time.

Winter Storm Threat: Feb 18-19 (second call)

Everything trended south in the last 24 hours…   So what happened? The main northern stream energy that was supposed to interact/guide the southern energy creating the snow storm has actually moved out ahead of the storm. This changes a few things… 1. The boundary layer will be able to get cooler and drier ahead […]

Winter Storm Threat: Feb 18-19 (first call)

What a nightmare of a forecast…   If I didn’t already say I was going to put out a snow map today I would probably have waited until tomorrow for a first call. As it is, I might do a second update before my final call on Saturday if the forecast seems to converge well […]