I can’t believe I haven’t done one of these since August… been too long.
The first real chance for severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic this year has arrived! Tomorrow’s looking increasingly promising for at least some severe wind threat in addition to an isolated tornado or two and maybe some hail. Strong post-frontal winds and brush fires are also risks with this system.
The latest models have been pushing out CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg in parts of the Mid-Atlantic from DC down to eastern NC tomorrow afternoon, which isn’t much, but for February it’s not too shabby. The low-level jet will also be roaring in southern VA and eastern NC, which strong thunderstorms could mix down to the surface. There is enough directional shear in the low-levels for a tornado threat in southeast VA and eastern NC, which is where I plan to storm chase.
Behind the front, dropping dewpoints and strong winds gusting to 50-60+ mph will bring a risk for brush fires to the region as well, especially in the areas that were north of the recent snowfall from last Sunday.
All of this will be going on during the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow, though winds will remain somewhat gusty going into Saturday.
Here’s the latest forecast from the SPC (click the image for their discussion):