Snowfall Verification for Feb 10-11

What a strange storm this was…

The three-part storm that I was expecting to be a two-parter. First, the snow in central MD over-performed Friday night as temperatures were just cool enough to allow snow to accumulate more quickly. The second part, the squall line, went as expected as accumulations of a dusting to a quarter inch (possibly a half inch in a few spots) were reported from that.

The third part that was enhanced by the inverted trough is what really got me. That produced a good 1-2 inches of snow over a good portion of the Delmarva Peninsula and in extreme eastern VA.

Another major failure in the forecast came in eastern PA and NJ as the coastal low and associated precipitation did not come as close to the coast as I had anticipated. Instead, it took a track similar to what the GFS showed and limited most of eastern PA and NJ to under an inch of snow during the first part of the storm. I also missed some of the higher lake-effect totals in northeast OH and northwest PA.

Weighing in the fact that I missed big in some areas, did fairly well in the mountains and the difficulty of the forecast, this was a D+.


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