Another headache-inducing storm with poor rates, boundary layer issues and overdone QPF amounts:
The verification wasn’t as bad as I thought it would be. I still got the general idea right, but was off in some key areas east of the mountains. The northern extent of 1+ inch accumulation in NJ was a bit surprising, and the OH snow and southern WV/VA snow was a bit lacking compared to my forecast. The southern edge did go down along the mountain ridges a bit more than I expected.
I’m going to give myself another B- for this event. I bit into the hype east of the mountains in VA/MD and put the one inch line further south than I felt comfortable doing, and that backfired. Going conservative is definitely the best option with the snowfall forecasts this winter.