Winter Storm Threat: Feb 18-19 (first call)

What a nightmare of a forecast…

 
If I didn’t already say I was going to put out a snow map today I would probably have waited until tomorrow for a first call. As it is, I might do a second update before my final call on Saturday if the forecast seems to converge well over the next 24 hours.

As has been the case all winter, the boundary layer temperatures are going to be a big issue with this event. Most (if not all) of the snow will be on the back end of the system, which doesn’t help matters, either. The latest models would suggest pulling the QPF further south and maybe some of the snow totals along with it, but it wouldn’t be much further south than what I currently have depicted. With high enough snow rates being depicted by the models on the back edge of the system, I think the snow will be able to stick eventually despite the surface temperatures being in the 33-36 range in the lower elevations. Localized 8-12 inch accumulations will be possible in the mountains that get the higher QPF totals.

I believe that the 4-8 inch snow contour could/should extend east of the mountains at some point, but with the discrepancies between the models at 12z and the inconsistency in the run-to-run storm evolution it would be difficult if not impossible to accurately place it east of the mountains.


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