Archive for March, 2012

April 2012 temperature forecast

After record March warmth in many areas (except for the West Coast, with some areas receiving record snowfall either in daily values and/or for the whole month of March), we’ll be looking at another warm month. All of the warm signals were in place at the start of last month, but this month the signals […]

New Project – U.S. Tornadoes

A little over a month ago, my friend Ian Livingston (@islivingston) started a new project that focuses on the past, present and future of tornadoes in the United States. He has brought me on board as the tornado threat forecaster for the site (www.ustornadoes.com), where I will be posting 1-7 day tornado forecasts every Monday […]

Winter 2011-2012 forecast verification

This was an ugly forecast… pretty much the exact opposite of what actually happened. There was virtually no blocking this year (I was relying on blocking for the cold pattern), and a fairly persistent and strong trough over Alaska prevented any sort of real, long-lasting cold from entering the U.S. DJF temperature forecast: F December […]

Winter Storm Threat: Mar 4-5 (only/final call)

Here’s my only/final forecast for the snow that will accumulate today into tomorrow:   Boundary layer temperatures are once again the main concern with this disturbance once you get east of the mountains. There is not a lot of model agreement regarding the QPF and surface temperatures with this system as it moves across the […]

Tornado Outbreak ongoing in the Midwest and Southeast

Multiple violent tornadoes are tracking across the Midwest to Southeast today as this High Risk event gets underway. CLICK HERE for an animated GIF of the long-track debris ball in southern Indiana (image size 3.28 MB). Here’s the latest SPC outlook: UPDATE (6:45pm): Another long-lived debris ball went through West Liberty, KY. CLICK HERE for […]