Browse Month

March 2012

April 2012 temperature forecast

After record March warmth in many areas (except for the West Coast, with some areas receiving record snowfall either in daily values and/or for the whole month of March), we’ll be looking at another warm month. All of the warm signals were in place at the start of last month, but this month the signals are a bit more mixed as the weather pattern tries to change it up some. Still looking at a warmer than normal month overall for most of the U.S.

New Project – U.S. Tornadoes

A little over a month ago, my friend Ian Livingston (@islivingston) started a new project that focuses on the past, present and future of tornadoes in the United States. He has brought me on board as the tornado threat forecaster for the site (www.ustornadoes.com), where I will be posting 1-7 day tornado forecasts every Monday and Thursday. I will also be posting special updates to the forecast if needed.

In addition to my forecasting responsibility, I am also doing some work on the web design as well as posting to the U.S. Tornadoes Twitter feed (@USTornadoes) and Facebook page.

Here is a look at the tornado forecast I wrote yesterday: http://www.ustornadoes.com/2012/03/15/tornado-threat-forecast-mar-15-21/

I will still be posting most of my material to this site, but you can also follow me on U.S. Tornadoes.

Winter 2011-2012 forecast verification

This was an ugly forecast… pretty much the exact opposite of what actually happened. There was virtually no blocking this year (I was relying on blocking for the cold pattern), and a fairly persistent and strong trough over Alaska prevented any sort of real, long-lasting cold from entering the U.S.

DJF temperature forecast: F

December 2011: F

January 2012: F

February 2012: D-

DJF precipitation forecast: D

Winter Storm Threat: Mar 4-5 (only/final call)

Here’s my only/final forecast for the snow that will accumulate today into tomorrow:

 
Boundary layer temperatures are once again the main concern with this disturbance once you get east of the mountains. There is not a lot of model agreement regarding the QPF and surface temperatures with this system as it moves across the region tomorrow, which along with the QPF uncertainty makes this a low confidence forecast. The early start time (being this afternoon) is to account for the ongoing snow showers along and west of the mountains.

Tornado Outbreak ongoing in the Midwest and Southeast

Multiple violent tornadoes are tracking across the Midwest to Southeast today as this High Risk event gets underway.

CLICK HERE for an animated GIF of the long-track debris ball in southern Indiana (image size 3.28 MB).

Here’s the latest SPC outlook:

UPDATE (6:45pm): Another long-lived debris ball went through West Liberty, KY. CLICK HERE for the radar loop (another large image).

UPDATE (7:45pm): Yet another long-lived debris ball… this one went through Salyersville, KY. CLICK HERE for large image goodness.