Browse Day

March 4, 2012

Winter 2011-2012 forecast verification

This was an ugly forecast… pretty much the exact opposite of what actually happened. There was virtually no blocking this year (I was relying on blocking for the cold pattern), and a fairly persistent and strong trough over Alaska prevented any sort of real, long-lasting cold from entering the U.S.

DJF temperature forecast: F

December 2011: F

January 2012: F

February 2012: D-

DJF precipitation forecast: D

Winter Storm Threat: Mar 4-5 (only/final call)

Here’s my only/final forecast for the snow that will accumulate today into tomorrow:

 
Boundary layer temperatures are once again the main concern with this disturbance once you get east of the mountains. There is not a lot of model agreement regarding the QPF and surface temperatures with this system as it moves across the region tomorrow, which along with the QPF uncertainty makes this a low confidence forecast. The early start time (being this afternoon) is to account for the ongoing snow showers along and west of the mountains.