Browse Month

August 2012

Winter 2012-2013 (DJF) Forecast – First Look

The monthly breakdown:

Winter 2012-2013:

METHODOLOGY:

Looked at the possible/likely ENSO forecast (around +0.9 for DJF holding steady or fading slightly) and matched years within +/- 0.3 of this. Analogs that had negative ENSO anomalies the previous winter and near neutral ENSO during the summer were favored. I then took the previous summers’ temperature anomalies into consideration when weighing the analogs.

ANALOGS:
in [year (weight)] format

2006 (more)
2002 (normal)
1994 (normal)
1986 (normal)
1953 (less)

NOTE: Anomalies are against 1981-2010 normals.

RISKS:

– A persistent -PDO could keep the West Coast cooler.
– The +AMO could allow for warmer temperatures in the Southeast and southern Plains.
– The -QBO might trigger blocking earlier than expected and allow cooler temperatures to work into the north-central U.S.
– Drought conditions over the central U.S. might keep drier and warmer weather over the central Plains and southwestern Midwest.