Winter 2012-2013 (DJF) Forecast – First Look
The monthly breakdown:
Winter 2012-2013:
METHODOLOGY:
Looked at the possible/likely ENSO forecast (around +0.9 for DJF holding steady or fading slightly) and matched years within +/- 0.3 of this. Analogs that had negative ENSO anomalies the previous winter and near neutral ENSO during the summer were favored. I then took the previous summers’ temperature anomalies into consideration when weighing the analogs.
ANALOGS:
in [year (weight)] format
2006 (more)
2002 (normal)
1994 (normal)
1986 (normal)
1953 (less)
NOTE: Anomalies are against 1981-2010 normals.
RISKS:
- A persistent -PDO could keep the West Coast cooler.
- The +AMO could allow for warmer temperatures in the Southeast and southern Plains.
- The -QBO might trigger blocking earlier than expected and allow cooler temperatures to work into the north-central U.S.
- Drought conditions over the central U.S. might keep drier and warmer weather over the central Plains and southwestern Midwest.
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