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October 2012

Winter 2012-2013 (DJF) Forecast – Update

My original forecast from August had to basically be thrown out due to a few key factors.

1. ENSO faltering. While the positive trends have recovered, there was a major misstep in the trend as the values for most of the ENSO regions started to fall. The latest data indicates that the positive trend has resumed, which led me to go with an ENSO value bordering on positive neutral and weak Nino for DJF. A new ENSO prediction means new analogs, which can be found at the end of the post.

2. Siberian snow cover. As you can see from the graphic below, significant gains have been made in Siberia compared to the start of the month. Studies show a correlation between positive snow cover trends over Siberia and cooler temperatures across eastern North America.

3. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO has generally been negative since May, and it shows no signs of going positive any time soon. A -NAO helps pull cold air into the eastern U.S. during the winter months.

Along with this new data, I also used the PDO and AMO signals to help weight my analog years.

The monthly breakdown:

Winter 2012-2013:

ANALOGS:
in [year (weight)] format

1976-77 (more)
1958-59 (more)
1952-53 (more)
2003-04 (less)
1990-91 (less)
1979-80 (less)
1960-61 (less)

NOTE: Anomalies are against 1981-2010 normals.

Chasing Hurricane Sandy

I will be departing for the New Jersey coast Sunday to chase Hurricane Sandy (or “Frankenstorm” if you wish to call it that). I will probably be chasing with Jason Foster either by caravanning or he will be in my car with me. We plan to be out there until Tuesday evening, with time restrictions bringing us home a bit earlier than we’d like. I doubt we will get a live stream going, but if we do I will post the information for it.

As always, my Twitter account (@MADUSWX) will be the best way to see updates from me. We will be up on Spotter Network as well.

Jason’s Twitter name has changed to @stormitecture (Storm-i-TECTURE is replacing his old company name, Weather Warrior Media).

There will be a significant snow event up in the Appalachians, with 1-2+ feet of snow possible, but unfortunately I do not have the time to make a forecast map.

Fall Foliage and new Flickr account

First, I’d like to say that I’m going to ditch the photo album thing I added to the site earlier this summer in favor for a Flickr account.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/madusweather

I just uploaded my fall foliage pictures there today, with a sample below:

A video will be coming soon and will be added to this post when complete. Video delayed due to preparations for the landfall of Sandy.

I also added a Flickr icon to the top right of the page for quick access.

It’s that quiet time of the year…

Still around… just been very quiet with respect to what I normally post about on here. Winter forecast update will be coming later this month… waiting on a little more data before I get the final release out there.

As a reminder, I am active on Twitter, so I recommend following that (@MADUSWX). I still post on ustornadoes.com as well, though that’s rather quiet now since there’s not much going on. There will be a tornado threat late this week in the central U.S., so I will be posting a forecast for that on the U.S. Tornadoes site later this week.

It’s a bit early to start the snow forecasts for the Mid-Atlantic, but rest assured those will come when needed. Hoping to get one, maybe two more chases in this year, but we’ll see how that plays out. I plan on making the trip to the Plains again next spring with some new video equipment, so that will be a good time once we reach that point.