Not a good result for my first forecast of the 2012-13 snow season. Forecast confidence was on the lower side, and it was a difficult forecast, but the difficulty doesn’t changed the fact that I missed the target in a lot of areas. Not a complete failure, though. This forecast gets a D grade.
The storm ended up being a bit weaker and further east than I (and most/all other forecasters) expected, resulting in cooler conditions and heavier snow further east along the coast. Max snowfall reported within the forecast area was a whopping 13.0″ in Freehold, NJ (which was the only report over a foot and got smoothed out in my verification map). In the end, it’s a good thing I left the 4-8″ contour out of the final map as it would have hurt my grade even more.
The stressful, difficult forecasts continue over from last season. I’m hoping for some more straight-forward storms this winter where the storm track isn’t swinging wildly from run to run within 12-48 hours of the event.