Still around… just been very quiet with respect to what I normally post about on here. Winter forecast update will be coming later this month… waiting on a little more data before I get the final release out there.
As a reminder, I am active on Twitter, so I recommend following that (@MADUSWX). I still post on ustornadoes.com as well, though that’s rather quiet now since there’s not much going on. There will be a tornado threat late this week in the central U.S., so I will be posting a forecast for that on the U.S. Tornadoes site later this week.
It’s a bit early to start the snow forecasts for the Mid-Atlantic, but rest assured those will come when needed. Hoping to get one, maybe two more chases in this year, but we’ll see how that plays out. I plan on making the trip to the Plains again next spring with some new video equipment, so that will be a good time once we reach that point.
Looked at the possible/likely ENSO forecast (around +0.9 for DJF holding steady or fading slightly) and matched years within +/- 0.3 of this. Analogs that had negative ENSO anomalies the previous winter and near neutral ENSO during the summer were favored. I then took the previous summers’ temperature anomalies into consideration when weighing the analogs.
– A persistent -PDO could keep the West Coast cooler.
– The +AMO could allow for warmer temperatures in the Southeast and southern Plains.
– The -QBO might trigger blocking earlier than expected and allow cooler temperatures to work into the north-central U.S.
– Drought conditions over the central U.S. might keep drier and warmer weather over the central Plains and southwestern Midwest.
Solo chase up into southeastern PA turned out alright as I got some shelf cloud pictures and saw some lightning. Probably not worth the 11 hours I spent driving (most of which was trying to find a place with a view), but I did gain some solo chasing experience since this was only my 2nd or 3rd longer chase by myself.
Here’s some stills I pulled off of my GoPro… all from the Lebanon, PA area:
Jason and I originally intended today’s chase to be more local to our homes in Montgomery County, MD, but as storms kept popping up to our south we kept dropping south with them. We initially crossed over into Virginia near Leesburg as a promising storm was moving into the area to our west. As that storm diminished, new storm after new storm would develop nearby and we went after them, but each storm pulsed out just as we approached the main core. Our goal for the day was getting into a hail core, but we only managed to get a couple of rounds of pea-sized hail. Eventually we ended up in the Fredericksburg, VA area and intercepted the storm that passed through there. After the main core diminished, I saw a tweet reporting damage in the Fredericksburg area and we went to investigate it.
Here is a video and a couple of pictures of the storm damage just southwest of Fredericksburg along US 1… I might get some more pictures and video processed later, but most of it has already been covered.
The NWS at LWX have completed their survey and concluded that a microburst with winds of 80 mph hit the area.
NWUS51 KLWX 092131
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT…CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
530 PM EDT MON JUL 09 2012
0520 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 S FREDERICKSBURG 38.26N 77.49W
07/08/2012 SPOTSYLVANIA VA NWS STORM SURVEY
*** 7 INJ *** A MICROBURST WITH 80 MPH WESTERLY WINDS
TORE THROUGH AN AREA 3 MILES SOUTH OF FREDERICKSBURG. ON
FLEMING ST BETWEEN LAFAYETTE BLVD AND ROUTE 1… A ROOF
WAS TORN OFF A GYM AND THE WALL COLLAPSED. THERE WERE 7
INJURIES IN THE GYM. THE ROOF WAS THROWN ONTO A HOME
NEXT DOOR. A FEW OTHER BUILDINGS IN THE INDUSTRIAL AREA
HAD ROOFING DAMAGE. THE INTENSE BURST OF WIND BLEW INTO
A RESIDENTAL AREA WHERE DOZENS OF TREES WERE SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED. MANY HOMES IN THE SUBDIVISION WERE DAMAGED BY
CORRECTED EVENT TIME…INJURIES…REMARKS…SOURCE
EVENT NUMBER LWX1200867
Just going to log some external links at the bottom here…