Archive for 2013

Modelology 101 – Snow Maps

The purpose of this post is to give people a basic knowledge of how to read, interpret and use snowfall forecast maps from the various weather models. This includes basic rules of thumb, snowfall calculations and the advantages and disadvantages different models have when producing snowfall maps. The first rule of thumb for model snow […]

Winter Storm Threat: Dec 8-9 (Final Call)

Not much difference from yesterday’s forecast, with the 1-2″ contour extending further south around DC/MD and a bit further north in central PA. Cut back totals in the westernmost areas in WV and OH. Areas west of I-95 remain at risk for a likely amount of 0.1″+ of freezing rain after the snow falls, with […]

Winter Storm Threat: Dec 8-9 (Initial Call)

So I’m going to just ignore tonight’s snow in the northern areas in order to focus on the Sunday event, which is quite challenging with a strong CAD signal from a 1036+ mb High over PA as the precipitation starts to move in from the south and west. I expect most areas to start off […]

Winter Storm Threat: Nov 26-27 (Only/Final Call)

We have quite the complicated winter storm on our hands for tonight through tomorrow, with some snow/mixed precipitation expected on the leading edge of the system that will change over to rain in many areas before the back edge transitions over to snow. Accumulations of 1″+ are mostly reserved for the mountains where the back-end […]

The storms have gone away

After a banner year of chasecationing out in the Plains for what was the only active two week period this year, things have been very quiet with respect to storms in the Mid-Atlantic. I did go chasing two months ago on June 13th in Virginia, but since then there really hasn’t been anything worth going […]

Upcoming Chasecation Plans

Next week I will be driving out to the Plains with a couple of other local MD/DC folks for a three week chasecation. I plan on doing daily updates again this year, which will also be posted on U.S. Tornadoes. Should be a lot of fun, though the long-range pattern is looking kind of shaky […]

Winter Storm Threat: Mar 24-25 (Final Call)

Same general theme, with a slight shift south along the southern edges and a more pronounced southern shift towards the upper part of the map. Risks are generally to the higher side on the southern fringe areas if the models are to be believed (especially if the overnight front-end thump is fairly wet).