Archive for January, 2013

First severe threat of 2013 in the Mid-Atlantic

While the severe weather outbreak will be more focused on the southern states, I did this write-up just for folks in the Mid-Atlantic. A widespread strong to severe wind event appears to be unfolding over the eastern half of the U.S. Tuesday into Wednesday, with isolated tornadoes also a threat, which is mostly across parts […]

Winter Storm Threat: Jan 25 (Final Call)

Somewhat higher confidence in the QPF totals brought about an expansion of the 2-4″ area. The GFS/NAM continue to suggest a snow hole in the northern VA and DC region, which remains a slight risk to the low side. Overall, I think risks are more to the high side, with localized 2-4″ totals possible within […]

Winter Storm Threat: Jan 25 (Initial Call)

Certainly a new breed of winter storm for this winter as we now have plenty of cold air in place, but moisture will be lacking in most areas. The good news is most of the Mid-Atlantic will see high snow ratios around 15-20:1, giving the event more bang for the buck. Risks are more to […]

Winter Storm Threat: Jan 17 (Final Call)

A quick update before I head into work… shifted the forecast further south overall and tightened up the contouring in areas that have slightly higher confidence than the initial forecast. This results in a virtual no-show north of DC aside from some flakes in the air to a dusting. Southern VA into northern NC will […]

Winter Storm Threat: Jan 17 (Initial Call)

Here comes the first notable snow event for the southern Mid-Atlantic this winter! A powerful upper-level vort. max will push through the region tomorrow, bringing strong dynamics with it that will help create a period of moderate to heavy snowfall. The snow will start in the morning hours in the higher elevations and will work […]

Winter Storm Threat: Jan 15-16 (only/final call)

Very tough call on the southern edges of the contours as sleet and freezing rain make an appearance as far south as northern MD (not including the mountains). Some locally higher totals of 4-8″ are possible, and I put a 4-8″ contour area in the spot where I think that is most likely to occur. […]