First severe threat of 2013 in the Mid-Atlantic

While the severe weather outbreak will be more focused on the southern states, I did this write-up just for folks in the Mid-Atlantic.

A widespread strong to severe wind event appears to be unfolding over the eastern half of the U.S. Tuesday into Wednesday, with isolated tornadoes also a threat, which is mostly across parts of the Southeast. The Mid-Atlantic has some opportunity for both on Wednesday, with the main threat obviously being a line of strong to severe winds.

We will be battling marginal lapse rates and pre-frontal clouds/rain, as we normally do in these early year setups. Very strong winds aloft (50-60 kt jet at 925mb!) suggests any sort of convection will bring down strong to severe level winds. With the strong forcing associated with the cold front, I don’t see much of a problem getting those winds to the surface. The only issue would be if a stable layer at the surface can linger ahead of the front, but that appears to be just a minor problem as the lift from the front should overcome the stable layer (if there is indeed a stable layer).

With dewpoints climbing into the lower 60s ahead of the front, we should be able to see a fairly strong frontal passage with widespread strong to severe winds. The main thing I’m watching now is the potential of a secondary low formation, which the NAM has (though that can’t be relied upon at this point). The Euro also develops a secondary low, but it comes later and further north than the NAM. If this secondary low develops before the front comes through, and if it’s far enough south, it will be able to back the winds more at the surface and would provide a greater risk for tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic.

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