Winter Storm Threat: Jan 25 (Initial Call)

Certainly a new breed of winter storm for this winter as we now have plenty of cold air in place, but moisture will be lacking in most areas. The good news is most of the Mid-Atlantic will see high snow ratios around 15-20:1, giving the event more bang for the buck.

Risks are more to the low side at the moment, with the current forecast leaning more towards the wetter European solutions. The NAM and GFS have been fairly insistent on a DC snow hole where accumulations are less than an inch. While entirely possible, I still think there’s enough QPF for most to get around an inch. Some of those east of the mountains in PA and NJ have a shot at 2-3″ if the higher-end QPF verifies.

Confidence is lower than normal with this storm due to the QPF issues and because the energy that will create this system is still somewhat offshore in the Pacific Northwest, so it is not getting sampled as well as it would if it was onshore.

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