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November 2013

Winter Storm Threat: Nov 26-27 (Only/Final Call)

We have quite the complicated winter storm on our hands for tonight through tomorrow, with some snow/mixed precipitation expected on the leading edge of the system that will change over to rain in many areas before the back edge transitions over to snow. Accumulations of 1″+ are mostly reserved for the mountains where the back-end snow will last long enough for such accumulations, with the westernmost areas expected to be all snow. Snow and mixed precipitation at the start of the event tomorrow morning is difficult to assess in both the start time and duration before it changes over to rain, and will generally be west of (and maybe a little east of) I-95. Isentropic lift will battle against dry air in the lower levels at the onset early tomorrow morning, with steadier precipitation moving in between mid-morning and mid-afternoon across most of the region.

If temperatures are cooler at the onset of precipitation, snowfall may be able to get to 1″ east of the forecast line before changing over to rain. Widespread rainfall of 1-3″+ is expected along/east of the Appalachians as this system moves through tomorrow afternoon through Wednesday before the back edge switches over to snow. The wet, saturated ground could hurt snow totals on the back edge of this system unless the snowfall rates are good enough to overcome this obstacle.