So I’m going to just ignore tonight’s snow in the northern areas in order to focus on the Sunday event, which is quite challenging with a strong CAD signal from a 1036+ mb High over PA as the precipitation starts to move in from the south and west. I expect most areas to start off as snow or a snow/sleet mix before changing over to sleet/freezing rain and eventually just rain. There is some potential for significant impacts west of I-95 on Sunday if the sleet and freezing rain persist for awhile, but most/all of the region is expected to be just rain by Monday morning rush hour. The highest freezing rain totals are expected to be around I-81, but even areas just west of I-95 could end up with at least a tenth of an inch of freezing rain. There is still some question as to how much cold air gets locked in east of the mountains and how much QPF overruns the cold air before above freezing mid-levels bring in the sleet and freezing rain.
There’s still plenty of uncertainty and room for change, so stay tuned for updates here and on Twitter! My second (final) forecast will be up tomorrow morning.