Winter Storm Threat: Feb 12-13 (Initial Call)

A big coastal storm will be ramping up in the Southeast Tuesday into Wednesday and will deepen along the Mid-Atlantic Coast Wednesday into Thursday, bringing significant snowfall to a large portion of the East Coast. My initial forecast leans mostly towards the Euro model, but there is some compromise with the GFS solution, which is also keeping confidence moderate at best. The Euro has been holding steady while the GFS keeps trending towards it, but the Euro may be over-amplified as it can be with these big coastal storms.

Sleet and rain mixing in along the coast should cut into totals, though how far inland the changeover goes is still up for debate. Likewise, the western edge could still see some notable shifts if the Euro track is way off (which I don’t believe to be the case). A strong area of banding is expected on the northwestern and western side of the storm, which could significantly boost totals if it can stall over an area for several hours.

20140212-13_MAsnowInitial

I’m fairly confident that I will need to add a 12-18 inch contour in the next update, but I don’t have enough certainty in the forecast to place it at this time.


2 Comments

  • Michelle

    February 11, 2014

    Will this be heavy snow or fluffy snow?

    Reply
    • Mark Ellinwood

      February 11, 2014

      Pretty heavy stuff from the Blue Ridge eastward. Lighter, higher-ratio stuff over the mountains.

      Reply

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