Winter Storm Threat: Feb 12-13 (Second Call)

Not incredibly different from my initial forecast… still uncertainty with the low track, which could cause more/less sleet and rain along the coast and could move the western edge of accumulation west/east. Also have to watch that band on the west side of the storm for possible higher totals. Hard to tell if I should lean more GFS, Euro or just split the solutions.

20140212-13_MAsnowSecond

Notable differences are 1) eastward shift of the 4-8 and 8-12 contours from central Maryland through northern North Carolina, 2) eastward shift of the western cut-off, and 3) addition of 12-18 contour in Virginia and extreme northern North Carolina. I think there is still more upward potential than downward west of I-95, but I am unsure of which way to lean along and east of I-95, where mixing could cut down totals but banding on the back side of the storm could boost totals.

Significant icing (0.25″+) is also possible in the Carolinas with this event, which could cut down on snow totals around Raleigh and Charlotte.

Even though the event will be underway in southern North Carolina tomorrow morning, I plan on issuing a quick update in the early afternoon tomorrow because Virginia northward could still see some decent shifts and I want to leave room to adjust if needed.


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