This is one of the more classic snow storms that we’re used to in the Mid-Atlantic: Temperature issues, wet (low ratio) snow and a mostly N+W of DC event. And of course there’s Philly getting in on the good stuff again like they have been basically all season.
The most uncertainty with this forecast lies in the southern edge of the accumulation zones where surface temperatures at or slightly above freezing will battle against the snow rates at least at the onset of precipitation. Most of the snow is expected to fall during 12z-18z, so it will have that pesky Sun to deal with as well. Despite what’s working against the storm, the snow rates look pretty good between 12z-18z, with the areas in and around D.C. currently expected to get about 0.5″ of QPF just within that six hour window. The northern edge of the higher totals is also a concern given the amount of disagreement and shifting the models are still doing at this juncture.
There’s still plenty of time for all this to shift north or south, and the gradient between snow totals may be tighter than what I have now across the southern areas. I’ll do some fine-tuning around this time tomorrow, but the overall theme of a nice 2-8″ swath across a good chunk of the region seems likely to hold.