Winter Storm Threat: February 16-17 (Initial Call)

Holy crap, a decent storm around D.C. where the rain/snow/mix line won’t be a concern! It’s a miracle.

So the biggest question at this point is QPF. There are some really juiced-up forecast models, and some not so much. Either way, snow ratios start getting good around D.C. and points north… talking 15:1 or better (20:1 along/north of the Mason-Dixon?).

20150216-17_MAsnow_initial

Other questions include how far north the 1+” totals get, and how much snow/sleet occurs in North Carolina and southeastern Virginia before they change over to rain/freezing rain (yes, sleet is included in the snow totals in that region).

The 8-12″ band is a little ambitious, but I feel like the more aggressive play is the correct one at this point. I think a 50/50 blend between the wetter models and drier models results in something close to this, with ratios taken into consideration.

I’ll issue a quick final update tomorrow morning.


One Comments

  • Brian

    February 15, 2015

    Excited to finally see Fredericksburg near dead-center of the snow band. I think we’ve had 3/4″ so far this winter 🙁

    Reply

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