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February 2017

Winter Storm Threat: February 8-9 (Final Call)

I ended up going more bullish with the southern fringe of the different snow contours east of the mountains and across south-central Pennsylvania, otherwise my thoughts are pretty similar to yesterday.

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Still looking at a fair amount of uncertainty regarding snow accumulation east of the mountains due to the very warm temperatures leading into this event. A good pasting of snow is expected once temperatures cool down early Thursday morning, but a 1-2 hour shift in either direction with the introduction of colder air could add or remove some 1-4″ of snow. That being said, once the changeover to snow is made, it will be snowing quite hard, and heavy snow can overcome marginal surface temperatures.

Winter Storm Threat: February 8-9 (Initial Call)

This time it’s the 40N crew that will cash in with this upcoming snow storm. After a very mild Wednesday along the East Coast, temperatures will come crashing down overnight as a disturbance develops over Virginia and tracks just south of Long Island.

20170208-09_initial

Ultimately, the strengthening and position of the surface low will have a large impact on how far north/south the 1″+ snow amounts end up. The snow will also be battling against a very warm antecedent air mass that will keep most spots as rain for at least the onset of precipitation. This means places like D.C. and Baltimore will struggle to change over to snow overnight. Heck, D.C. stands a risk of never changing over to snow at all Thursday morning if the more northern model solutions are correct.

As the initial storm system moves out Thursday morning and early afternoon, a second upper-level vort. max will slide through the Mid-Atlantic. This could trigger snow showers across more of the Mid-Atlantic Thursday afternoon and evening. Most places around/south of D.C. will still be too warm to see this light snow stick, but a little “snow TV” is better than nothing… I think?