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March 2017

Winter Storm Threat: March 13-14 (Final Call)

The wintry mix of snow, sleet, and rain appears to be creeping closer to I-95 on the models, so I tightened up the gradient a bit to reflect lower totals from D.C. to Baltimore. The same is true for Long Island, and could be true for eastern New Jersey and New York City as well.

On the flip side, higher QPF across most of Pennsylvania into northern New Jersey and eastern Upstate New York increased the snow total forecast for these areas. Some small increases also occurred along the Appalachians.

Highest risk is still how far north and west the sleet/rain mixing line gets tonight, which could cut deeply into totals along I-95. Once you get far enough north and west and enter the “safe zone” where no mixing is expected, locally higher snow totals are possible.

Oh yeah, and don’t forget about those winds, especially along the coast. Gonna be fun.

Winter Storm Threat: March 13-14 (Initial Call)

As has been the pattern of recent Marches, we in the Mid-Atlantic find ourselves with a late-season snow storm that contains significant snowfall. While the storm evolution may not be classic, it seems that we will see a fairly common snowfall distribution, with the highest snow totals hitting mostly north and west of I-95 while areas south and east see more of a rain and a wintry mix.

The two main questions are where the rain/snow line ends up, and how warm will the surface temperatures be when the snow is falling. For the D.C. to Philadelphia corridor, this will mean a lot. The models differ on just how cold it is along the I-95 corridor as the precipitation is falling, which is where most of the uncertainty with this forecast lies.

The QPF is also a bit of an issue, but taking a model blend seems to be the best way to go at this point. I wouldn’t count hugely on anomalous pockets of minimal QPF, and I’m sure there will be some area that gets sweet deformation banding and ends up with more snow than expected.